UK student visas down 5.5 per cent in 2023

On 29 February, the Home Office released its most recent data on UK student visas, covering the final quarter of 2023. Across the whole year, UK student visa issuances to main applicants were down 5.5 per cent compared to 2022, mainly driven by falling student numbers in India and Nigeria.

One important factor in this year's trend was a very sharp drop in the final quarter of the year, which saw a 37% drop in visa issuances compared to October-to-December 2022. Although only a relatively small proportion of students receive their visas in Q4, this was enough to turn a slight increase in the January-to-September period into a decline for the year as a whole. As with the full-year statistics, the main drivers of this drop at the country level were India and Nigeria.

Unless otherwise noted all figures in this article refer to visas issued to main applicants, i.e. the students themselves, and exclude visas issued to dependents.

Trends in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa turn negative

In the last few years the number of international students coming to the UK has increased significantly, which was driven mainly by strong growth in India and Nigeria as well as other countries in the South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa regions. However, 2023 saw a reversal of those trends, with drops of 14 per cent and 28 per cent respectively in India and Nigeria.

This change was driven by multiple factors. Economic factors have played an important role in Nigeria, as the Naira was devalued in mid 2023, meaning that UK study has become much more expensive in local currency terms. At the same time, changes to policies on dependent visas have caused negative sentiment in both countries (although the actual policy changes only went into effect at the beginning of 2024), and some students are also concerned about potential future changes to the UK’s Graduate Route post-study work visa.

Both countries saw a particularly sharp drop in the final quarter of the year, with Indian student visa issuances down 43% and issuances to Nigerians down 63% compared to the last three months of 2022.

Elsewhere in South Asia, Pakistan saw 11 per cent growth in UK student visas, but all of this growth came in the first three quarters of the year – the trend in the final three months of the year was negative. Bangladesh had a substantial 39 per cent drop in visa issuances, while Sri Lanka also saw a decline. The only major country in the region to see a continuing increase in Q4 was Nepal, where visa issuances in the October to December period were more than 50 per cent higher than in the same period of 2022.

Nevertheless, visa numbers from these countries continue to be much higher than before the Graduate Route was introduced, and India was still the UK’s top sending country in terms of student visa issuances.

China recovers slightly, but mobility to the UK is still below the pre-Covid level

Visa issuances to Chinese citizens increased by 5.8 per cent in 2023, after a drop last year. This is mainly due to a recovery of outbound students in the first full year after the end of Covid lockdowns.

However the number of visas issued is still 8.4 per cent lower than the figure in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic. This is partly a result of intensifying competition for Chinese students – the UK gained market share over the pandemic period but has lost ground to other Anglophone countries in the last year. For example, data from Australia shows that the number of student visas issued to Chinese primary applicants outside of Australia increased by 42 per cent compared to the number in 2022, substantially higher than the UK's growth rate.

Elsewhere in East Asia, the trend is mostly negative. Hong Kong is still the second largest sender in East and South-East Asia but also saw the biggest net drop in the region, with a 17 per cent decrease in visa issuances, following on from a 19 per cent drop last year. Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea – the third to fifth largest senders in the region – all saw fewer visas issued in 2023 than the previous year, which in all three cases was a reversal of the trend we saw in 2022. Statistics on the BN(O) visa route, which allows some Hong Kongers to move to the UK to work or study rather than going through the Sponsored Study visa route, also showed a 52 per cent decline compared to last year.

Mixed trends in other countries, generally with less positive results in the final quarter

Trends elsewhere in the world varied by country and region. The US – which was the UK’s fifth largest sender in 2023 – saw basically flat student numbers, with an increase of only 0.9 per cent year-on-year; meanwhile Saudi Arabia and Kuwait both saw moderate growth at 12 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Turkey was one of the strongest performing sending countries, with overall growth of 34 per cent compared to 2022. France and Germany – the only EU countries in the top 20 senders – both saw small drops, but the trend in Eastern Europe was more positive with growth across Poland, Romania, Czechia, Bulgaria and Hungary, leading to a basically flat trend for the EU as a whole.

While trends for the whole year varied, most sending countries saw a much more negative trend in the final quarter of the year compared to the January-to-September period. Many saw an increase in visas issued in the first three quarters of the year followed by a drop in the last three months of the year, while India and Nigeria both saw sharper drops in Q4 than in the first three quarters. While only a relatively small proportion of students apply for visas in the final quarter of the year (most apply in the July-to-September quarter ahead of the start of the traditional academic year) this may be a warning sign for potential 2024 recruitment trends.

Divergent trends in child student and general student visas

Looking specifically at child student visas, 2023 saw an increase of young students coming to the UK. The number of child student visas increased by 9.8 per cent in 2023, while general student visas – which account for a large majority of the total – dropped by 5.9 per cent.

This was driven largely by mainland China, which has once more become the UK’s top source of child students. The number of child student visas issued to Chinese citizens increased by more than 90 per cent, although it still remains well below the pre-Covid level. Other major sending countries and territories saw less dramatic changes, with a slight two per cent drop in Hong Kong, a roughly flat trend in Germany, and an eight per cent drop in Spain.

Graduate Route visas continue to grow

2023 was only the second full year in which Graduate Route visas have been available. This year saw a 65 per cent growth in the Graduate Route, with almost 144,000 graduates granted leave to work in the UK under this scheme.

India remains by far the largest source of Graduate Route participants, and saw 68 per cent growth in 2023, while Nigeria, Pakistan and Bangladesh all saw their numbers of Graduate Route visas more than double compared to last year.

China continues to be under-represented on this scheme compared to the number of Chinese students studying in the UK, but nevertheless the number of Chinese citizens issued visas under this route increased by 38 per cent in 2023 to reach more than 11,500.

Detailed statistics

The table below gives student visa issuance trends for the top 30 sending countries or territories, showing the total number of sponsored study visas issued to main applicants (excluding dependents) and their growth compared to the previous year and the pre-pandemic total in 2019. More detailed figures, and data for other countries/territories, are available from the Home Office’s immigration system statistics at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables